Avalon, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 6% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are up 6.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 60% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−10% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (56/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 14.4% below their final list price; 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 63% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $221k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,262 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $249 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +11% over the next 12 months (75% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.1% to +11.2% (80% range; middle estimate +4.1%), chance of a rise 75%, of a 5%+ drop 10%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.