United States housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 30% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 1.2% over the past year.
• Supply. Listings are 9% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+5% vs. a year ago), close to pre-pandemic levels.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (54/100): homes sell for about 1.5% below their final list price; 26% of listings had a price cut.
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 35% of the median household income; it takes about $93k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,790 a year for home insurance.
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $386/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $155 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value, mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +7% over the next 12 months (77% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −4.8% to +7.5% (80% range; middle estimate +3.7%), chance of a rise 77%, of a 5%+ drop 9%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

States