Carpinteria, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 48% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 8.4% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 19% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+21% vs. a year ago), still somewhat tight.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (35/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 0.9% below their final list price; 16% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 105% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $351k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,143 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $4,457/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $544 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −4% to +13% over the next 12 months (81% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −3.6% to +12.7% (80% range; middle estimate +5.7%), chance of a rise 81%, of a 5%+ drop 7%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.