Commerce, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 21% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 1.7% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. There are 109% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+97% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (24/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (101.6% of list); 1% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 63% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $161k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,027 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $271 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −7% to +9% over the next 12 months (64% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.2% to +9.1% (80% range; middle estimate +2.1%), chance of a rise 64%, of a 5%+ drop 15%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.