Ione, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 20% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are flat over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 5% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 16% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−9% vs. a year ago), still somewhat tight.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (52/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 2.3% below their final list price; 31% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 39% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $118k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,825 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $229 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −7% to +9% over the next 12 months (65% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.1% to +9.2% (80% range; middle estimate +2.2%), chance of a rise 65%, of a 5%+ drop 14%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.