San Juan Capistrano, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 31% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 3.9% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 53% below the 2017-19 norm: still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (29/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 1.1% below their final list price; 26% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 72% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $312k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,259 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $3,559/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $380 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −4% to +12% over the next 12 months (78% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −4.5% to +11.9% (80% range; middle estimate +4.8%), chance of a rise 78%, of a 5%+ drop 8%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.