Santa Barbara, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 27% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 4.5% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 43% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−22% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (33/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 2.9% below their final list price; 20% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 116% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $412k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,131 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $6,598/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $466 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −4% to +12% over the next 12 months (78% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −4.3% to +12.0% (80% range; middle estimate +5.0%), chance of a rise 78%, of a 5%+ drop 8%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.