South Lake Tahoe, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (−5% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
• Prices. Home values are up 1.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 10% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 34% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−10% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (48/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 2.2% below their final list price; 19% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 58% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $160k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $3,393 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $1,570/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $204 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +12% over the next 12 months (77% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −4.5% to +11.8% (80% range; middle estimate +4.7%), chance of a rise 77%, of a 5%+ drop 9%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.