Lexington city, VA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 27% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are up 2.4% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 100% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−100% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (50/100; U.S.: 54) (as of Feb 2026): homes sell for about 1.7% below their final list price; 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%) (as of Dec 2025).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 31% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $87k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,445 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $106 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −6% to +11% over the next 12 months (74% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.6% to +10.8% (80% range; middle estimate +3.9%), chance of a rise 74%, of a 5%+ drop 11%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.