Manassas Park city, VA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 34% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 1.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. There are 0% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm, so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (18/100; U.S.: 54) (as of Oct 2021): homes sell for about 0.8% below their final list price; 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%) (as of Oct 2021).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 34% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $117k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,445 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $849/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $113 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −1% to +16% over the next 12 months (89% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −0.9% to +15.5% (80% range; middle estimate +8.6%), chance of a rise 89%, of a 5%+ drop 3%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.