Williamsburg city, VA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (+5% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
• Prices. Home values are up 3.3% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. There are 0% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and falling (−100% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (11/100; U.S.: 54) (as of Sep 2021): homes sell for about 2.2% below their final list price; 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%) (as of Sep 2021).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 39% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $99k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,445 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $377/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $65 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely +1% to +18% over the next 12 months (93% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: +1.4% to +17.8% (80% range; middle estimate +10.9%), chance of a rise 93%, of a 5%+ drop 1%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.