Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 23% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 4.9% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 59% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−5% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (14/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 0.0% below their final list price; 21% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 34% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $102k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,532 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $346/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $112 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −2% to +13% over the next 12 months (85% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −2.2% to +12.7% (80% range; middle estimate +6.6%), chance of a rise 85%, of a 5%+ drop 5%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN metro