Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 27% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are down 2.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. There are 30% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+18% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (74/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 1.6% below their final list price; 30% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 38% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $105k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,553 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $943/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $115 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −8% to +7% over the next 12 months (56% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −8.2% to +6.7% (80% range; middle estimate +0.7%), chance of a rise 56%, of a 5%+ drop 18%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro