Magnolia, AR metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 29% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 2.5% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 19% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 36% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−7% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (71/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 4.7% below their final list price; 13% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 20% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $37k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,514 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $137 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155).
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −10% to +5% over the next 12 months (44% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −9.6% to +5.4% (80% range; middle estimate −0.7%), chance of a rise 44%, of a 5%+ drop 23%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Magnolia, AR metro