Malvern, AR metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (+7% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
• Prices. Home values are down 2.5% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. There are 4% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+9% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (89/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 4.6% below their final list price; 30% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 23% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $42k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,641 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $167 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −9% to +6% over the next 12 months (48% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −9.1% to +5.8% (80% range; middle estimate −0.2%), chance of a rise 48%, of a 5%+ drop 21%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Malvern, AR metro