Natchitoches, LA metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 34% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are up 1.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 12% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 31% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−7% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (59/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 0.0% below their final list price; 20% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 30% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $46k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,892 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $105 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −7% to +8% over the next 12 months (66% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −6.8% to +8.2% (80% range; middle estimate +2.1%), chance of a rise 66%, of a 5%+ drop 14%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Natchitoches, LA metro