San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 26% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are flat over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 13% below the 2017-19 norm, still somewhat tight.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (35/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 0.8% below their final list price; 26% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 62% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $218k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,763 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $2,466/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $218 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +10% over the next 12 months (74% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.2% to +9.7% (80% range; middle estimate +3.7%), chance of a rise 74%, of a 5%+ drop 10%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA metro