Sonora, CA metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 8% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 1.2% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 9% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 8% below the 2017-19 norm, close to pre-pandemic levels.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (87/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 3.0% below their final list price; 27% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 38% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $98k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,785 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $941/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $324 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from wildfire. Check insurance costs before buying.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −8% to +7% over the next 12 months (60% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.6% to +7.3% (80% range; middle estimate +1.3%), chance of a rise 60%, of a 5%+ drop 16%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Sonora, CA metro