Troy, AL metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 13% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 3.4% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 6% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 18% below the 2017-19 norm, still somewhat tight.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (56/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 3.3% below their final list price; 12% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 26% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $41k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,531 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Owning and renting a typical home cost about the same per month.
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $104 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −6% to +9% over the next 12 months (70% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −6.1% to +8.9% (80% range; middle estimate +2.8%), chance of a rise 70%, of a 5%+ drop 12%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Troy, AL metro