Uvalde, TX metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 9% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 5.5% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 7% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 47% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+8% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (98/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 4.0% below their final list price; 16% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 31% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $55k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,696 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $112 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −10% to +5% over the next 12 months (44% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −9.6% to +5.3% (80% range; middle estimate −0.7%), chance of a rise 44%, of a 5%+ drop 23%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Uvalde, TX metro