Warren, PA metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 25% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 2.4% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 62% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+36% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (54/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 3.1% below their final list price; 20% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 19% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $38k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,018 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $252 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +10% over the next 12 months (74% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.1% to +9.8% (80% range; middle estimate +3.7%), chance of a rise 74%, of a 5%+ drop 10%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Warren, PA metro