New Jersey housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 36% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 3.9% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 52% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+18% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (14/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (101.8% of list); 17% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 48% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $165k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,563 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $134 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −3% to +10% over the next 12 months (82% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −3.3% to +10.3% (80% range; middle estimate +5.0%), chance of a rise 82%, of a 5%+ drop 6%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in New Jersey

Metros in New Jersey