New York, NY 10309 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 25% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 4.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 53% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+45% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (24/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 1.6% below their final list price; 16% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 51% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $198k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,149 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $2,860/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $67 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +12% over the next 12 months (77% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −4.5% to +11.8% (80% range; middle estimate +4.7%), chance of a rise 77%, of a 5%+ drop 9%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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