Bowling Green, VA 22535 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Balanced market · leverage 52
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Home Value
$404,414
+3.0% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
52
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
8.0 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
14 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
15%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.0%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
18%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
-49%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$118
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 49% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
- Prices. Home values are up 3.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. There are 17% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+200% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (52/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 2.0% below their final list price; 15% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 18% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $95k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,470 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $118 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −8% to +9% over the next 12 months (61% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.7% to +8.6% (80% range; middle estimate +1.5%), chance of a rise 61%, of a 5%+ drop 16%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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Other ZIP codes in Caroline County, VA
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruther Glen, VA 22546 | $359.4K | +3.3% | 55 |
| Woodford, VA 22580 | $361.2K | +5.3% | 40 |
| Bowling Green, VA 22427 | $369.4K | +4.3% | 40 |
| Milford, VA 22514 | $344.7K | +6.4% | 12 |
| Rappahannock Academy, VA 22538 | – | – | 48 |