Waco, KY 40385 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Balanced market · leverage 56
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Home Value
$251,502
−2.1% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
56
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
2.8 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
63 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
44%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
95.9%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
30%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
21%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$105
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 21% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
- Prices. Home values are down 2.1% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. Listings are 42% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+75% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (56/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 4.1% below their final list price; 44% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 30% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $62k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,470 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $105 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −8% to +8% over the next 12 months (60% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.9% to +8.4% (80% range; middle estimate +1.4%), chance of a rise 60%, of a 5%+ drop 17%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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Other ZIP codes in Madison County, KY
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond, KY 40475 | $301.3K | +1.4% | 53 |
| Berea, KY 40403 | $255.6K | +0.8% | 63 |
| ZIP 40404 | – | – | – |