Carver, MN 55315 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Balanced market · leverage 62
Open on the mapMarket report (PDF)Compare
Home Value
$504,710
+1.8% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
62
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
3.8 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
48 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
36%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.8%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
27%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
25%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$102
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 25% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
- Prices. Home values are up 1.8% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. There are 39% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+126% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (62/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 1.2% below their final list price; 36% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 27% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $129k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,270 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $102 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −7% to +9% over the next 12 months (66% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.0% to +9.3% (80% range; middle estimate +2.3%), chance of a rise 66%, of a 5%+ drop 14%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
Follow Carver, MN 55315
One email a month: what changed in prices, supply and the outlook. Unsubscribe any time.
Other ZIP codes in Carver County, MN
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaska, MN 55318 | $482.1K | +2.8% | 27 |
| Chanhassen, MN 55317 | $532.2K | +2.5% | 13 |
| Waconia, MN 55387 | $463.2K | +2.3% | 38 |
| Victoria, MN 55386 | $619.7K | +2.9% | 18 |
| Watertown, MN 55388 | $379.7K | +2.4% | 17 |
| Chaska, MN 55322 | $455.3K | +3.7% | 55 |
| Norwood Young America, MN 55397 | $344.3K | +1.7% | 14 |
| Mayer, MN 55360 | $391.2K | +2.6% | 16 |
| Norwood Young America, MN 55368 | $359K | +3.7% | 1 |
| New Germany, MN 55367 | $391.2K | +5.1% | 48 |
| Hamburg, MN 55339 | $346.8K | +3.3% | 6 |