Lead, SD 57754 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Buyer's market · leverage 96
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Home Value
$378,603
−1.8% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
96
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
7.1 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
89 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
20%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
95.5%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
44%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
28%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$196
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 28% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
- Prices. Home values are down 1.8% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. There are 19% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+8% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (96/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 4.5% below their final list price; 20% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 44% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $96k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,149 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $196 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −9% to +7% over the next 12 months (54% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −8.8% to +7.5% (80% range; middle estimate +0.4%), chance of a rise 54%, of a 5%+ drop 20%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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Other ZIP codes in Lawrence County, SD
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spearfish, SD 57783 | $454.3K | −0.7% | 79 |
| Whitewood, SD 57793 | $448.4K | +2.5% | 61 |
| Deadwood, SD 57732 | $383K | +0.3% | 58 |
| ZIP 57799 | – | – | – |
| Deadwood, SD 57759 | $630.1K | −2.1% | 17 |
| Saint Onge, SD 57779 | – | – | 71 |