Welch, OK 74369 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Balanced market · leverage 30
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Home Value
$249,071
+6.3% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
30
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
12.8 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
64 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
0.0%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.0%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
34%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
96%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$229
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 96% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
- Prices. Home values are up 6.3% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. Listings are 40% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−71% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (30/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 0.0% below their final list price; 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 34% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $62k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,922 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $229 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. Leaning up: likely −3% to +13% over the next 12 months (82% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
Leaning up
Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −3.3% to +13.0% (80% range; middle estimate +6.0%), chance of a rise 82%, of a 5%+ drop 6%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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Other ZIP codes in Craig County, OK
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vinita, OK 74301 | $194.1K | +4.1% | 90 |
| Big Cabin, OK 74332 | $266.3K | +4.4% | 18 |
| Bluejacket, OK 74333 | $272.3K | +6.8% | 59 |
| Ketchum, OK 74349 | – | – | 79 |