Garwood, TX 77442 housing market

What this means

• Prices. Home values are down 6.9% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 20% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 63% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−50% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (58/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 16.3% below their final list price; 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 29% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $70k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,396 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $124 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −9% to +7% over the next 12 months (49% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −9.4% to +6.9% (80% range; middle estimate −0.1%), chance of a rise 49%, of a 5%+ drop 22%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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