Nixon, TX 78140 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Balanced market · leverage 94
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Home Value
$204,802
−4.9% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
94
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
8.5 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
152 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
33%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.3%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
34%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
-9.3%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$106
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 9% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
- Prices. Home values are down 4.9% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 30% below their 2022-23 peak.
- Supply. Listings are 28% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−50% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (94/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 2.7% below their final list price; 33% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 34% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $57k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,129 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $106 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −9% to +7% over the next 12 months (48% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −9.4% to +6.9% (80% range; middle estimate −0.2%), chance of a rise 48%, of a 5%+ drop 22%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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Other ZIP codes in Gonzales County, TX
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales, TX 78629 | $250.5K | −6.3% | 100 |
| Harwood, TX 78632 | $425K | −7.0% | 51 |
| Waelder, TX 78959 | $309.8K | −7.7% | 47 |
| Smiley, TX 78159 | $252.3K | −7.0% | 87 |
| Leesville, TX 78122 | – | – | 8 |
| Cost, TX 78614 | – | – | 38 |
| ZIP 78658 | – | – | – |
| Wrightsboro, TX 78677 | – | – | – |