Jal, NM 88252 housing market

What this means

• Prices. Home values are down 6.7% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 49% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 10% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+200% vs. a year ago), still somewhat tight.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (12/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (107.0% of list) (as of Jun 2018); 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 23% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $40k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,262 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $114 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −7% to +10% over the next 12 months (67% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −6.7% to +9.6% (80% range; middle estimate +2.5%), chance of a rise 67%, of a 5%+ drop 14%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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