Manchester, CA 95459 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 13% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 1.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 22% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 41% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−8% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (99/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 6.7% below their final list price; 62% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 68% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $156k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,262 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $246 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −8% to +8% over the next 12 months (57% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −8.3% to +8.0% (80% range; middle estimate +1.0%), chance of a rise 57%, of a 5%+ drop 18%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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