HouseVaneOpen the mapRichmond, CA: forecast scorecard
What HouseVane forecast for home values 12 months ahead, and what happened. Data through Sep 2026; updated every month.
Richmond, CA market todayAll California areas
Direction right
64%
49 of 76 months · naive 63%
Inside the 80% range
82%
62 of 76 months · should be about 80%
Average miss
6.3 pts
naive 7.7 pts
Sep 2025 call: happened
−1.0%
said −1.6%; 80% range −9.7% to +6.7% (inside)
Now: Sep 2026 forecast
Over the 12 months to Sep 2027: +2.3%, likely −5.9% to +10.4%.
Calls on record
Forecasts as published, waiting for their result:
| Data month | Published | Said | 80% range | Checked with |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | Oct 17, 2026 | +2.3% | −5.9% to +10.4% | the Sep 2027 data |
| Aug 2026 | Oct 5, 2026 | +2.1% | −6.2% to +10.1% | the Aug 2027 data |
Archived when published and never edited, so these can't be rewritten once the result is in. None has resolved yet: until then, the record below is a backtest.
Said vs. happened, every month since Jun 2019
Said80% rangeHappened
Each point is a forecast made with that month's data, plotted at the month it was made. The last 12 haven't resolved yet. Backtest points are scored on today's revised data (see below).
Month by month
| Data month | Said | 80% range | Happened | In range | Naive | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | +2.3% | −5.9% to +10.4% | due Sep 2027 | −1.0% | on record | |
| Aug 2026 | +2.1% | −6.2% to +10.1% | due Aug 2027 | −1.7% | on record | |
| Jul 2026 | +1.8% | −6.4% to +9.9% | due Jul 2027 | −2.5% | backtest | |
| Jun 2026 | +1.3% | −6.9% to +9.4% | due Jun 2027 | −3.4% | backtest | |
| May 2026 | +1.2% | −7.1% to +9.2% | due May 2027 | −4.2% | backtest | |
| Apr 2026 | +1.3% | −7.2% to +9.2% | due Apr 2027 | −4.9% | backtest | |
| Mar 2026 | +1.6% | −7.1% to +9.3% | due Mar 2027 | −5.4% | backtest | |
| Feb 2026 | +1.9% | −6.9% to +9.5% | due Feb 2027 | −5.8% | backtest | |
| Jan 2026 | +2.0% | −6.8% to +9.6% | due Jan 2027 | −6.0% | backtest | |
| Dec 2025 | +1.3% | −7.3% to +9.1% | due Dec 2026 | −6.1% | backtest | |
| Nov 2025 | +0.6% | −7.9% to +8.5% | due Nov 2026 | −6.2% | backtest | |
| Oct 2025 | −0.4% | −8.7% to +7.7% | due Oct 2026 | −6.3% | backtest | |
| Sep 2025 | −1.6% | −9.7% to +6.7% | −1.0% | ✓ yes | −6.5% | backtest |
| Aug 2025 | −2.4% | −10.4% to +6.1% | −1.7% | ✓ yes | −6.5% | backtest |
| Jul 2025 | −2.6% | −10.6% to +5.8% | −2.5% | ✓ yes | −6.3% | backtest |
| Jun 2025 | −2.8% | −10.8% to +5.7% | −3.4% | ✓ yes | −5.9% | backtest |
| May 2025 | −2.3% | −10.4% to +6.1% | −4.2% | ✓ yes | −4.9% | backtest |
| Apr 2025 | −1.6% | −9.9% to +6.6% | −4.9% | ✓ yes | −3.6% | backtest |
| Mar 2025 | −0.8% | −9.3% to +7.2% | −5.4% | ✓ yes | −2.3% | backtest |
| Feb 2025 | −0.3% | −9.0% to +7.6% | −5.8% | ✓ yes | −1.4% | backtest |
| Jan 2025 | −0.1% | −8.7% to +7.9% | −6.0% | ✓ yes | −1.2% | backtest |
| Dec 2024 | +0.4% | −8.4% to +8.2% | −6.1% | ✓ yes | −1.3% | backtest |
| Nov 2024 | +0.8% | −8.0% to +8.6% | −6.2% | ✓ yes | −1.2% | backtest |
| Oct 2024 | +0.9% | −8.1% to +8.6% | −6.3% | ✓ yes | −0.7% | backtest |
Earlier months (64)
| Data month | Said | 80% range | Happened | In range | Naive | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2024 | +0.6% | −8.3% to +8.4% | −6.5% | ✓ yes | +0.2% | backtest |
| Aug 2024 | +0.4% | −8.4% to +8.3% | −6.5% | ✓ yes | +0.9% | backtest |
| Jul 2024 | +0.7% | −8.2% to +8.5% | −6.3% | ✓ yes | +1.7% | backtest |
| Jun 2024 | +1.9% | −7.3% to +9.5% | −5.9% | ✓ yes | +2.4% | backtest |
| May 2024 | +2.2% | −7.0% to +9.7% | −4.9% | ✓ yes | +2.6% | backtest |
| Apr 2024 | +2.4% | −6.8% to +10.0% | −3.6% | ✓ yes | +2.2% | backtest |
| Mar 2024 | +2.5% | −6.6% to +10.2% | −2.3% | ✓ yes | +1.4% | backtest |
| Feb 2024 | +2.0% | −6.7% to +10.1% | −1.4% | ✓ yes | +0.3% | backtest |
| Jan 2024 | +1.9% | −6.9% to +9.9% | −1.2% | ✓ yes | −0.8% | backtest |
| Dec 2023 | +2.2% | −6.6% to +10.3% | −1.3% | ✓ yes | −1.9% | backtest |
| Nov 2023 | +2.4% | −6.4% to +10.4% | −1.2% | ✓ yes | −3.1% | backtest |
| Oct 2023 | +3.2% | −5.8% to +11.1% | −0.7% | ✓ yes | −4.3% | backtest |
| Sep 2023 | +3.1% | −5.9% to +11.0% | +0.2% | ✓ yes | −6.0% | backtest |
| Aug 2023 | +2.1% | −6.7% to +10.2% | +0.9% | ✓ yes | −7.8% | backtest |
| Jul 2023 | +1.8% | −7.0% to +9.9% | +1.7% | ✓ yes | −9.4% | backtest |
| Jun 2023 | +1.0% | −7.8% to +9.0% | +2.4% | ✓ yes | −10.4% | backtest |
| May 2023 | −0.6% | −9.0% to +7.7% | +2.6% | ✓ yes | −10.6% | backtest |
| Apr 2023 | −2.8% | −10.8% to +5.7% | +2.2% | ✓ yes | −9.8% | backtest |
| Mar 2023 | −5.0% | −12.5% to +3.9% | +1.4% | ✓ yes | −8.0% | backtest |
| Feb 2023 | −5.5% | −13.0% to +3.3% | +0.3% | ✓ yes | −5.1% | backtest |
| Jan 2023 | −5.5% | −12.9% to +3.3% | −0.8% | ✓ yes | −2.3% | backtest |
| Dec 2022 | −5.5% | −13.0% to +3.3% | −1.9% | ✓ yes | +0.2% | backtest |
| Nov 2022 | −6.0% | −13.5% to +2.8% | −3.1% | ✓ yes | +1.9% | backtest |
| Oct 2022 | −5.3% | −13.0% to +3.4% | −4.3% | ✓ yes | +3.4% | backtest |
| Sep 2022 | −2.5% | −10.7% to +5.7% | −6.0% | ✓ yes | +4.7% | backtest |
| Aug 2022 | +2.5% | −6.7% to +9.7% | −7.8% | ✗ no | +6.2% | backtest |
| Jul 2022 | +6.9% | −3.2% to +13.3% | −9.4% | ✗ no | +8.1% | backtest |
| Jun 2022 | +11.6% | +0.9% to +17.3% | −10.4% | ✗ no | +10.1% | backtest |
| May 2022 | +15.3% | +4.1% to +20.6% | −10.6% | ✗ no | +11.7% | backtest |
| Apr 2022 | +16.4% | +5.1% to +21.5% | −9.8% | ✗ no | +12.5% | backtest |
| Mar 2022 | +15.8% | +4.5% to +20.9% | −8.0% | ✗ no | +12.4% | backtest |
| Feb 2022 | +12.8% | +1.8% to +18.3% | −5.1% | ✗ no | +11.6% | backtest |
| Jan 2022 | +10.6% | +0.1% to +16.5% | −2.3% | ✗ no | +11.3% | backtest |
| Dec 2021 | +9.4% | −0.8% to +15.6% | +0.2% | ✓ yes | +11.8% | backtest |
| Nov 2021 | +9.3% | −0.8% to +15.6% | +1.9% | ✓ yes | +13.3% | backtest |
| Oct 2021 | +10.2% | −0.3% to +16.2% | +3.4% | ✓ yes | +15.1% | backtest |
| Sep 2021 | +13.3% | +2.0% to +18.4% | +4.7% | ✓ yes | +17.1% | backtest |
| Aug 2021 | +16.6% | +4.5% to +20.8% | +6.2% | ✓ yes | +18.7% | backtest |
| Jul 2021 | +18.2% | +5.6% to +21.9% | +8.1% | ✓ yes | +19.0% | backtest |
| Jun 2021 | +17.7% | +5.2% to +21.3% | +10.1% | ✓ yes | +17.5% | backtest |
| May 2021 | +16.0% | +3.9% to +20.0% | +11.7% | ✓ yes | +15.2% | backtest |
| Apr 2021 | +14.4% | +2.5% to +18.6% | +12.5% | ✓ yes | +13.2% | backtest |
| Mar 2021 | +13.7% | +2.0% to +18.0% | +12.4% | ✓ yes | +11.9% | backtest |
| Feb 2021 | +13.8% | +2.1% to +18.1% | +11.6% | ✓ yes | +11.1% | backtest |
| Jan 2021 | +14.2% | +2.3% to +18.3% | +11.3% | ✓ yes | +10.3% | backtest |
| Dec 2020 | +13.9% | +2.0% to +18.1% | +11.8% | ✓ yes | +9.2% | backtest |
| Nov 2020 | +12.4% | +0.9% to +16.9% | +13.3% | ✓ yes | +7.8% | backtest |
| Oct 2020 | +9.7% | −1.2% to +14.8% | +15.1% | ✗ no | +6.4% | backtest |
| Sep 2020 | +6.4% | −3.6% to +12.4% | +17.1% | ✗ no | +5.2% | backtest |
| Aug 2020 | +4.1% | −5.3% to +10.8% | +18.7% | ✗ no | +4.4% | backtest |
| Jul 2020 | +3.2% | −5.9% to +10.2% | +19.0% | ✗ no | +4.1% | backtest |
| Jun 2020 | +4.3% | −5.0% to +11.2% | +17.5% | ✗ no | +4.3% | backtest |
| May 2020 | +6.6% | −3.1% to +13.1% | +15.2% | ✗ no | +4.4% | backtest |
| Apr 2020 | +7.9% | −2.0% to +14.2% | +13.2% | ✓ yes | +4.1% | backtest |
| Mar 2020 | +8.1% | −1.9% to +14.3% | +11.9% | ✓ yes | +3.5% | backtest |
| Feb 2020 | +7.3% | −2.7% to +13.6% | +11.1% | ✓ yes | +2.9% | backtest |
| Jan 2020 | +6.4% | −3.5% to +12.8% | +10.3% | ✓ yes | +2.3% | backtest |
| Dec 2019 | +5.3% | −4.4% to +11.9% | +9.2% | ✓ yes | +1.8% | backtest |
| Nov 2019 | +4.7% | −4.9% to +11.4% | +7.8% | ✓ yes | +1.7% | backtest |
| Oct 2019 | +3.9% | −5.5% to +10.8% | +6.4% | ✓ yes | +1.7% | backtest |
| Sep 2019 | +3.4% | −6.0% to +10.3% | +5.2% | ✓ yes | +1.8% | backtest |
| Aug 2019 | +2.9% | −6.5% to +9.8% | +4.4% | ✓ yes | +1.8% | backtest |
| Jul 2019 | +2.7% | −6.8% to +9.6% | +4.1% | ✓ yes | +1.9% | backtest |
| Jun 2019 | +3.2% | −6.5% to +9.9% | +4.3% | ✓ yes | +2.3% | backtest |
How to read this
- Said is HouseVane's forecast of the change in the typical home value (Zillow's ZHVI) over the 12 months after the data month; happened is the change that followed. The range is the forecast's 80% range: about 8 in 10 outcomes should land inside it.
- On record rows are forecasts as published at the time, saved in our archive since October 2026. They start resolving with the August 2027 data.
- Backtest rows are the model refit each month on only the months known then. They are a reconstruction, not calls we made: the backtest scores the forecast on today's revised history, not on the numbers as first published. Zillow re-smooths its past home values and other sources restate theirs, so the model is fed, and checked against, figures it couldn't have seen at the time. Only calls on record avoid that. And the model's design was chosen in 2026, knowing how these years went.
- Naive is the guess that the last 12 months repeat. A forecast earns its keep only by beating it.
- City forecasts are their ZIP codes' forecasts, weighted by homes; a city's outcome is its own home value. Months with too little data are left out.