Atherton, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 84% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 15.7% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 49% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−7% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (2/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (106.6% of list); 12% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 228% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $1.9M a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,523 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $336 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −1% to +16% over the next 12 months (89% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −0.8% to +15.6% (80% range; middle estimate +8.5%), chance of a rise 89%, of a 5%+ drop 3%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.