Alameda County, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (+6% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
• Prices. Home values are down 1.1% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 11% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 16% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and falling (−7% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (23/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (105.7% of list); 19% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 58% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $249k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,766 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $3,271/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $363 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −7% to +9% over the next 12 months (67% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −7.0% to +9.4% (80% range; middle estimate +2.5%), chance of a rise 67%, of a 5%+ drop 14%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

ZIP codes in Alameda County, CA