El Cajon, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 35% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are flat over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 5% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+23% vs. a year ago), close to pre-pandemic levels.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (29/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (100.2% of list); 24% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 85% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $192k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,601 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $2,516/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $197 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −7% to +9% over the next 12 months (66% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −6.8% to +9.5% (80% range; middle estimate +2.4%), chance of a rise 66%, of a 5%+ drop 14%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.