El Cerrito, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (+1% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
• Prices. Home values are up 2.7% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 12% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 14% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+17% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (9/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (122.2% of list); 11% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 64% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $271k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,723 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $4,093/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $289 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +11% over the next 12 months (74% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.4% to +10.9% (80% range; middle estimate +3.9%), chance of a rise 74%, of a 5%+ drop 10%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.