Merced, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 32% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are down 1.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 3% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 3% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+7% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (45/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 1.7% below their final list price; 26% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 45% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $95k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,262 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $346/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $191 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −7% to +10% over the next 12 months (67% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −6.8% to +9.5% (80% range; middle estimate +2.5%), chance of a rise 67%, of a 5%+ drop 14%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.