Pinole, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 10% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 1.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 14% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 8% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+13% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (34/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (101.6% of list); 28% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 40% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $172k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,766 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $411 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −6% to +10% over the next 12 months (71% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −6.0% to +10.4% (80% range; middle estimate +3.3%), chance of a rise 71%, of a 5%+ drop 12%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.