St. Helena, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 26% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 0.8% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 19% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 32% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm, so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (100/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 7.5% below their final list price; 19% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 74% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $366k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,040 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $5,671/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $413 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −9% to +8% over the next 12 months (56% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −8.5% to +7.8% (80% range; middle estimate +0.7%), chance of a rise 56%, of a 5%+ drop 19%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.