San Francisco, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 11% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are up 13.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 5% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 14% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−30% vs. a year ago), still somewhat tight.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (6/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (113.7% of list); 5% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 71% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $333k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,980 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $3,653/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $312 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −2% to +14% over the next 12 months (86% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −1.9% to +14.4% (80% range; middle estimate +7.3%), chance of a rise 86%, of a 5%+ drop 4%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.