San Marcos, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 13% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are flat over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 27% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−13% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (23/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 0.8% below their final list price; 23% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 62% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $227k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,711 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $2,324/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $169 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −6% to +10% over the next 12 months (70% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −6.1% to +10.2% (80% range; middle estimate +3.2%), chance of a rise 70%, of a 5%+ drop 12%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.