San Mateo, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (+8% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
• Prices. Home values are up 4.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. There are 19% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and falling (−24% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (16/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (105.9% of list); 17% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 75% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $385k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,861 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $5,703/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $340 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −4% to +13% over the next 12 months (81% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −3.6% to +12.7% (80% range; middle estimate +5.7%), chance of a rise 81%, of a 5%+ drop 7%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.