San Rafael, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 15% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 2.5% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 6% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 2% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−39% vs. a year ago), close to pre-pandemic levels.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (18/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (102.7% of list); 19% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 77% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $308k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,715 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $4,521/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $348 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +12% over the next 12 months (76% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −4.8% to +11.5% (80% range; middle estimate +4.5%), chance of a rise 76%, of a 5%+ drop 9%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.