Tiburon, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (+1% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
• Prices. Home values are up 8.2% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 4% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 31% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−25% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (12/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (101.3% of list); 10% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 89% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $689k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $3,048 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $10,579/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $238 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −3% to +14% over the next 12 months (84% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −2.6% to +13.7% (80% range; middle estimate +6.7%), chance of a rise 84%, of a 5%+ drop 5%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.