Tracy, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 25% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are down 4.4% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 14% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 31% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+9% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (46/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (100.1% of list); 27% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 40% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $161k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,513 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $1,331/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $187 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −8% to +9% over the next 12 months (61% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.7% to +8.6% (80% range; middle estimate +1.6%), chance of a rise 61%, of a 5%+ drop 16%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.