Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (+9% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
• Prices. Home values are up 4.5% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 29% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+40% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (49/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 3.0% below their final list price; 31% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 28% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $81k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,357 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $236/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $220 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +11% over the next 12 months (74% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.4% to +11.0% (80% range; middle estimate +4.1%), chance of a rise 74%, of a 5%+ drop 10%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

ZIP codes in Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK