Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 18% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are down 7.4% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 15% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 17% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+22% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (53/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 1.0% below their final list price; 13% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 31% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $75k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,359 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $298 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from wildfire. Check insurance costs before buying.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −8% to +9% over the next 12 months (63% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.6% to +8.8% (80% range; middle estimate +1.9%), chance of a rise 63%, of a 5%+ drop 16%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

ZIP codes in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK