Rio Arriba County, NM housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Balanced market · leverage 66
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Home Value
$335,846
+2.3% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
66
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
11.9 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
107 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
18%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.3%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
42%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
7.2%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$303
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (+7% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
- Prices. Home values are up 2.3% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. Listings are 42% below the 2017-19 norm: still a tight market.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (66/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 0.7% below their final list price; 18% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 42% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $79k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,634 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $303 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −7% to +9% over the next 12 months (65% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.3% to +9.1% (80% range; middle estimate +2.2%), chance of a rise 65%, of a 5%+ drop 15%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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ZIP codes in Rio Arriba County, NM
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanola, NM 87532 | $353.8K | +5.5% | 56 |
| Dulce, NM 87528 | – | – | 71 |
| Alcalde, NM 87511 | – | – | 27 |
| Ohkay Owingeh, NM 87566 | – | – | 23 |
| Hernandez, NM 87537 | – | – | 53 |
| Dixon, NM 87527 | – | – | 61 |
| Chamisal, NM 87521 | – | – | 28 |
| Chama, NM 87520 | $318.9K | −0.4% | 86 |
| El Rito, NM 87530 | – | – | 35 |
| Medanales, NM 87548 | – | – | 87 |
| Abiquiu, NM 87510 | $401.9K | −3.0% | 46 |
| Chama, NM 87575 | – | – | 56 |
| Medanales, NM 87549 | – | – | 22 |
| Velarde, NM 87582 | – | – | 52 |
| Blanco, NM 87412 | $269.1K | +7.7% | 69 |
| Tres Piedras, NM 87577 | – | – | 64 |
| Truchas, NM 87578 | – | – | 50 |
| Cordova, NM 87523 | – | – | 70 |
| Gallina, NM 87017 | – | – | 70 |
| Canjilon, NM 87515 | – | – | 14 |
| Coyote, NM 87012 | – | – | 3 |
| La Madera, NM 87539 | – | – | 6 |
| Lindrith, NM 87029 | – | – | 38 |
| Youngsville, NM 87064 | – | – | 20 |
| Los Ojos, NM 87551 | – | – | 92 |
| La Jara, NM 87046 | – | – | 81 |
| Canones, NM 87516 | – | – | 45 |
| Vallecitos, NM 87581 | – | – | 57 |
| ZIP 87518 | – | – | 88 |
| ZIP 87554 | – | – | – |