Menard County, TX housing market

What this means

• Prices. Home values are up 7.1% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 15% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 29% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm, so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (84/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 10.0% below their final list price (as of Feb 2026); 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 38% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $68k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,149 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $104 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −6% to +11% over the next 12 months (72% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.9% to +10.5% (80% range; middle estimate +3.6%), chance of a rise 72%, of a 5%+ drop 11%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

ZIP codes in Menard County, TX